predicting wars with maths
Asimov’s prediction about mathematical models predicting war conflicts (Psychohistory) seem to come true…
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May Lim, Richard Metzler, and Yaneer Bar-Yam*
ScienceMagazine - September 2007
[the link requires a subscription to sciencemag.org, but you can ask the article per email to the authors from here)]
*New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI)
Abstract:We identify a process of global pattern formation that causes regions to differentiate by culture. Violence arises at boundaries between regions that are not sufficiently well defined. We model cultural differentiation as a separation of groups whose membersprefer similar neighbors, with a characteristic group size at which violence occurs. Application of this model of the former Yugoslavia and to India accurately predicts the locations of reported conflict to the area. This model also points to imposed mixing or boundary clarification as mechanisms for promoting peace.
Prediction of regions of most probable ethnic violence (red areas) in the former Yugoslavia by a model based on the population distribution of ethnic groups in 1991. Credit: © Science
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I personally believe, socio historical patterns of human particles are statistically predictable.
I think Science has to focus more on this promising area which could benefit mankind quite a lot.
While cross-validation of the proposed model would certainly need some more time to come, congratulation to the NECSI group!
AZ
Popularity: 92% [?]
Cheers! Sandra. R.
