is the estimated probability of a fatal accident with the Space Shuttle in current operational conditions.
from a recent article on the BBC
In April, Dr Griffin, (the Big Boss of NASA) told a US Senate sub-committee: “The shuttle is an inherently risky design. We currently assess the per-mission risk as about one in 75 of having a fatal accident. If one were to do, as some have suggested, fly the shuttle for an additional five years - say two missions a year - the risk would be about one in 12 that we would lose another crew.”
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Cheers! Sandra. R.
Massimo says:
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:30
It’s not that surprising. As written by Feynman over 20 years ago, after the inquiry that followed the Challenger disaster, the engineers were convinced that the probability of an engine failure (alone) was around 1/200.
The NASA management, on the contrary, claimed the probability of a fatal accident to be about 1/10000, which was (and is) an absolutely irrealistic, and irresponsibly misleading figure, meant to reassure the non-military crew members that were starting to be included in the shuttle missions (e.g. there was a schoolteacher on the Challenger, and she had accepted mainly because the NASA had convinced her that the flight was abolutely safe).
If you consider the aging of the structures, the difficulty of proper manteinance and the constant funding cut suffered by NASA, one in 75 is perhaps even a conservative estimate.
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